Many Trump supporters, and even wary Biden supporters, look at today’s polls with skepticism. People argue that polls once showed Hillary Clinton would beat Trump. While Clinton won the popular vote, she lost the electoral college. One important factor, however, that contributed to the surprise win in 2016 was polling error though. The polls lacked weighting for education because non-college-educated voters tend to support Trump more strongly. Those problems were fixed by the 2018 midterm elections.
And there is this vital polling difference to consider as well: Clinton never enjoyed the polling leads that Biden does. It very different in 2020.
Marist College and Quinnipiac University polls, for example, showed Clinton leading Trump in Pennsylvania 39 percent to 38 percent in July 2016. A Real Clear Politics average of Pennsylvania polls in the lead up to the election showed Clinton up a similar 1.5 percent. It was very tight.
But a Monmouth University Pennsylvania poll released last week shows Biden leading 52 percent to Trump’s 42 percent. And a New York Times/Siena College poll last month showed the same exact lead for Biden, 50 percent to 40 percent.
The Real Clear Politics average shows Biden leading by 8.7 percent and he has also consistently polled over 50 percent in recent months, something Clinton never did.
Another important factor is that White college women are breaking away from the Republicans and Trump in a way that is unprecedented in modern politics. Biden’s up a solid double digits over Trump with college white women. It’s very difficult for Republicans to compete in the suburbs if they’re losing white college women by a tremendous margin.
Of course anything could happen in 2020, which is one of the most unpredictable years on record. But things are looking well by historical standards for Biden and very poorly for Trump.
The encouraging thing about these Fox News polls is that these are close battleground states which Trump barely won in 2016 and Biden is much further ahead than Clinton was at the same time in the race.
Fox News found Biden was 13 points ahead of Trump in Minnesota, and 11 points ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania as of Monday.
Fifty percent of voters in Pennsylvania opted for Biden when asked who they would vote for if an election were held today, while 39 percent told Fox News they would back Trump.
In the new Minnesota poll, Biden was supported by 51 percent of registered voters in the state as less than four in ten (38 percent) of Minnesotans favored Trump.
A third Fox News battleground state survey from Michigan put Biden nine points ahead of Trump with the backing of 49 percent of voters in the swing state.
“Trump said he’s done with Fox News after the network on Sunday showed him trailing former Vice President Joe Biden in the polls.
Trump claimed he was leading in “real polls” but did not cite any.”
In addition to attacking Fox, Trump also urged his supporters to change the channel.
Trump has repeatedly attacked news agencies for reporting on polls unfavorable to him and even sent a “cease and desist” threat to CNN last month for broadcasting a poll that showed him trailing Biden by 14 points.
The Trump campaign also reportedly cut ties with some pollsters last month after internal polls were leaked. Those polls showed Trump trailing Biden in several swing states.
Trump has expressed displeasure with Fox News numerous times in recent months. In May, he complained that the network was “doing nothing to help Republicans, and me, get re-elected.” He also said he was “looking for a new outlet.”
The latest poll published Wednesday, conducted by Quinnipiac University, showed Biden as the top choice of 32 percent of Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic. Warren came in at 19 percent and Sanders was at 15 percent.
There has been some back and forth this past week, with another poll showing the three much closer.
Also, the deadline for qualifying for the third debate has passed. The debate will include just 10 of the 21 candidates still remaining in the race. They qualified based on recognized polls and unique donations. The next debate will be one night only, on September 12, 2019, and all the major candidates will face each other directly for the first time. The 10 will be (left to right on stage): Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Andrew Yang, Beto O’Rourke, and Julian Castro.
There seems to be some rattling going on between the so-called “Bernie Bros” and Warren supporters, where some Sanders supporters are accusing Warren of not really having a concrete position on health care reform, and basically copying Sanders in order to grab the progressives. Warren herself, who has a “plan for everything” still isn’t quite specific about what her health care plan is. She started with an incremental progress position, much like Biden’s public option, and then leaped into “Medicare for All” at the first debate. Some hope Warren and Biden, the top two candidates, can reach a working policy and cooperate together. That would be something.
In Trump’s latest assault on reality he has now claimed that any polling which reflects negatively on his actions are, basically by definition, fake.
Trump isn’t just trying to claim majority support. He clearly seeks to discredit all negative opinions with comments like “any negative polls are fake news.” This is unusual and alarming behavior from a president.
Plenty of presidents probably haven’t liked their polling numbers before. President Barack Obama probably wasn’t thrilled that his health care law has been mostly viewed unfavorably since 2010. President George W. Bush couldn’t have been satisfied with his job approval ratings, which steadily declined throughout his second term.
But neither Obama nor Bush tried to discredit American opinion. Trump seems to think he can ignore anything that isn’t favorable to him.